Hughes Mortgage News

Foreclosure Activity Slows For The First Time In Several Years

The national foreclosure rate is finally falling.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, the number of foreclosure notices dropped 2 percent between April 2009 and April 2010.

2 percent may not seem like much, but it’s the first time in the history of the RealtyTrac report that the annual foreclosure rate has dropped.

To be sure, foreclosure rates remain elevated — more than 300,000 were reported last month, but default notices appear to be approaching a plateau.

The RealtyTrac report shows some other interesting statistics, too:

• 6 states accounted for more than half of April’s bank repossessions nationwide
• For the 40th month in a row, Nevada topped the nation’s foreclosure rate
• Foreclosure rates dropped in both California and Arizona, 2 foreclosure hot-spots through 2009

The good news for housing doesn’t stop there.  9 of the top 10 leading metropolitan areas for foreclosure-related activity showed a drop in annual activity.  Only Reno, Nevada showed an increase.

Buying distressed homes is big business, according to the National Association of Realtors®, accounting for 35 percent of all home resales with a typical discount ranging near 15 percent on value.

But with the discount comes some caution. You need to know how buying a foreclosed can be different from buying a non-foreclosed home.

For example, distressed properties are often sold as-is and may have defects that render them “un-lendable”.  Secondly, “quick closings” aren’t usually possible with bank-owned homes — you’re often at the bank’s schedule and mercy.

And, lastly, not all foreclosed homes are searchable online. You’ll usually find more stock if you work with a real estate agent versus searching online.

The RealtyTrac foreclosure report is thorough and can help you gauge what’s happening on a state-by-state level, and in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.  Once you’ve done your research, talk to your real estate agent about what to do next.

There’s still good deals in the foreclosure market — you just have to know where to find them.

Posted on May 13, 2010 | Tags: Foreclosures

Markets Ignore The April Jobs Report And It’s Good News For Mortgage Rates

On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls is a major market mover. The number of working Americans is directly tied to the health of the economy which, in turn, drives the stock and bond markets.

In general, when jobs numbers improve, it’s good for stocks and bad for mortgage bonds. It follows, therefore, that conforming mortgage rates rise because rates always move opposite of mortgage bond prices.

Conversely, when jobs numbers worsen, it tends to be bad for stocks and good for mortgage bonds.  Mortgage rates fall.

Today, markets are behaving a bit differently.

Despite 290,000 jobs created in April 2010 — nearly twice the expected amount — and a 40 percent upward revision of March’s numbers, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged. 

In a normal environment, rates would be higher.  Today is not normal.

Today is a departure because, for all of the jobs report’s import to Wall Street, it’s less important to markets than what’s happening in Greece right now.

Greece is struggling to meet its debt obligations and its citizens are rioting.

Until a debt solution for Greece is made that sticks, unrest in the region will drive safe haven buying both domestically and abroad. U.S. mortgage bonds will gain on that movement because mortgage bonds are “safe”, and mortgage rates will fall.

Indeed, this is exactly what’s been happening since the start of April. Mortgage markets have been rallying for 5 weeks.

So, today’s jobs news is terrific for the economy and mortgage rates should be rising because of it.  But, they’re not. Consider taking advantage — lock in a rate.

Posted on May 07, 2010 | Tags: Jobs

1 In 8 Banks Tightened Prime Mortgage Standards Last Quarter

The Federal Reserve says that financial markets “remain supportive of economic growth”. Residential mortgage guidelines, however, continue to tighten.

If you’ve applied for a home loan recently, you probably felt it; extra scrutiny on income, assets and credit scores, among other things.  The hard proof of the changes, however, can be found in the Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey of its member banks.

Every 3 months, the Federal Reserve asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether their respective banks’ “prime” residential mortgage guidelines tightened since the last survey.

For the period January-March 2010, 1 in 8 banks surveyed toughened their qualification standards. 

Only 4% loosened them.

When we account for the Fed’s survey in conjunction with new underwriting standards from Fannie Mae and FHA, it’s clear that getting approved for a mortgage in 2010 is more difficult than at any time in recent memory.

Today’s homeowners and home buyers have taller hurdles to leap:

• Minimum FICO scores are higher
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger
• Debt-to-Income thresholds are smaller

In other words, mortgage rates may stay low throughout 2010, but that won’t matter to homeowners failing to meet the new, minimum eligibility standards as set forth by the lenders.

If you’re among the many people wondering if now is the right time to buy or refinance a home, remember that — along with a probable increase in mortgage rates — mortgage approvals are getting more scarce.

The best home price or mortgage rate in the world won’t matter if you’re ineligible for financing.

Posted on May 06, 2010 | Tags: Federal Reserve

March Pending Home Sales Point To Stronger Spring Market

The Pending Home Sales Index moved higher in March as home sales were spurred by low mortgage rates and an expiring tax credit.

A “pending home” is a property that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

March marks the second straight month in which the Pending Home Sales Index improved after a series of weak showings this past winter.

March showed a 5 percent increase over the month, but the Pending Home Sales Index is still off its October 2009’s peak.  October 2009 is a comparable period to March 2010 in that it marked the 1-month deadline before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date. The credit was later extended to April 2010, of course.

That said, March’s surge in sales is being felt on the street.

Home buyers no doubt noticed the change in activity. Around the country, anecdotally, multiple offer situations were more common last month and “right-priced” homes tended to go under contract quickly.

The increase in March’s Pending Home Sales is diminishing the nation’s home supply which, in turn, should cause prices to rise in most markets.

Today’s buyers should consider making an offer sooner rather than later.  Looking at the data, it appears the best time to have found a “deal” on a home may have been in February.

Posted on May 05, 2010 | Tags: Pending Home Sales

Fannie Mae Tightens Guidelines On ARMs And Interest Only Products

For the first time this year, Fannie Mae announced significant updates to its mortgage underwriting guidelines.

The changes include newer, harsher ARM qualification standards, the elimination of a once-popular loan product, and tighter rules for interest only mortgages. 

Fannie Mae made its official announcement April 30, 2010.  The changes will roll out to home buyers and homeowners over the next 12 weeks.

The first guideline change is tied to ARMs of 5 years or less. 

Mortgage applicants must now qualify based on a mortgage rate 2% higher than their note rate.  For example, if your mortgage rate is 5 percent, for qualification purposes, your rate would be 7 percent.

The elevated qualification payment will disqualify borrowers whose debt-to-income levels are borderline.

The second change is Fannie Mae’s elimination of the standard 7-year balloon mortgage.  Balloon mortgages were popular early last decade.  Lately, few borrowers have chosen them, though.  Mostly because rates have been relative high as compared to a comparable 7-year ARM.

And, lastly, Fannie Mae is changing its interest only mortgages guidelines.

Effective June 19, 2010, Fannie Mae interest only mortgages must meet the following criteria:

1. The home must be a 1-unit property
2. The home must be a primary residence, or vacation home
3. The borrower’s FICO must be 720 or higher
4. The mortgage must be a purchase, or rate-and-term refinance. No “cash out” allowed.

Furthermore, borrowers using interest only mortgages must show two full years of mortgage payments “in the bank” at the time of closing.

Earlier this year, Fannie Mae-sister Freddie Mac announced that as of September 2010, it will stop offering interest only loans altogether.

Between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and other government-supported entities, the U.S. government now backs 96.5% of the U.S. mortgage market.  So long as mortgage default rates are high, expect approvals for all borrower types to continue to toughen.

Posted on May 04, 2010 | Tags: Fannie Mae

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 3, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week on tame inflation data, a benign statement from the Federal Reserve, and ongoing credit problems in Greece.

The factors combined to drop conforming mortgage rates to their lowest levels in 6 weeks.

It’s an unexpected development considering that mortgage rates were supposed to rise post March 31, 2010.  That was the day the Fed’s support for mortgage markets ended.

Since then, however, a month-long string of devastating economic and meteorological events within the Eurozone sparked a global flight-to-quality that benefited “safe” assets such as mortgage bonds.

May 2010 may not be so kind.

The week starts with news that Greece reached a $147 billion bailout agreement with the IMF Sunday. This is a plus for the Eurozone and mortgage market negative. Rates should rise on the bailout.

Also on Monday, the government releases Personal Consumptions and Expenditures data. 

PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and it’s expected to show an annual read of 1.3 percent. Anything higher and rates should rise.

Then, for the rest of the week, employment data takes center stage.

• Wednesday : ADP releases its private sector employment data
• Thursday : The government releases initial jobless claims
• Friday : The government releases April’s job report

Jobs are key to the U.S. economic recovery, tied to consumer spending, consumer confidence, and mortgage delinquencies.  If job growth is better than expected, mortgage rates should rise.  If job growth is worse, rates should fall.

There’s no “best day” to lock this week so keep an eye on the market.  However, if rates rise as quickly in May as they fell in April, you won’t have much time to act.

Posted on May 03, 2010 | Tags: Mortgage Rates

The Fed Adjourns From A 2-Day Meeting Today And What It Means For Mortgage Rates

The Federal Reserve adjourns from a scheduled, 2-day meeting today.  It’s one of 8 scheduled Fed meetings for 2010.

Upon adjournment, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce “no change” in the Fed Funds Rate.

The Fed Funds Rate is currently in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The Fed Funds Rate is an inter-bank lending rate. It’s also the basis for Prime Rate, a consumer interest rate on which credit card payments are based, among other consumer loans.  Prime Rate is equal to the Fed Funds Rate + 3 percent.  Credit card rates, therefore, will likely stay flat today, too.

Mortgage rates, however, should change.  Possibly by a lot.  The 30-year fixed mortgage does not correlate with the Fed Funds Rate (as shown in the chart at right).

The reason mortgage rates will change today is because, in its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight vrious parts of the economy, identifying strengths, weaknesses and probable threats to growth. 

These observations influence investors with a stake in bond markets and future returns and, with Wall Street on edge right now — unsure of whether recent economic growth is a longer-term trend or a short-lived blip — mortgage rates could shoot higher or they could drop, depending on how traders interpret the Fed.

It’s a difficult time to be shopping mortgages.

Further complicating matters is Greece’s recent debt downgrade to junk status. A small contagion fear is budding worldwide and, as a result, the flight-to-quality has picked up steam. Mortgage rates are down because of it but could reverse higher at any moment.

Therefore, if you’re actively shopping for a mortgage today, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed’s announcement and any major market reversal. Mortgage rates may fall today, but there’s very little room for them to fall.  This is, however, a lot of room for them to rise.

The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.  Call your loan officer to lock your rate.

Posted on April 28, 2010 | Tags: FOMC

New Homes Sales Were Strong in March, But Not As Strong As The News Would Have You Believe

The sales of newly-built homes soared in March. Even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the media is telling us.

Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:

• Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
• New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
• Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)

None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading.  The biggest reason why March’s New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it — February — was the worst in New Home Sales history.

In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history. 

A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date. 

Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.

Home buyers - first-timers and repeats alike — went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program.  The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.

Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.

The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low.  Along with stronger home demand, this should push home prices higher throughout the coming months.

It’s no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.

Posted on April 27, 2010 | Tags: New Home Sales

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 26, 2010

Mortgage markets worsened last week in see-saw trading. By the time Friday’s market closed, mortgage rates were higher across the board — ARMs, fixed rates, FHA and conventional.

The biggest stories of last week were actually non-stories. 

First, the ash cloud from Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano dissipated, allowing warehouses to move inventory, airlines to move people, and businesses to move product.  In addition, Greece moved closer to securing emergency funding that will help it stave off default.

When these two issues were threats earlier in the month, mortgage bonds rallied on safe haven buying, driving rates down. As the threats lessened over the course of last week, however, mortgage bonds sold off and mortgage rates rose.

By contrast, this week features lots of stories. Economic data will be at the forefront, as will the Federal Reserve which meets for one of its 8 scheduled meetings of the year.

• Monday : Greece is expected to announce an aid package
• Tuesday : Case-Shiller Index reports on home values from February
• Wednesday : Fed adjourns from its 2-day meeting
• Thursday : Initial Unemployment Claims are released
• Friday : GDP and consumer confidence numbers are released

Furthermore, Wall Street will have its eye on the Senate’s questioning of key Goldman Sachs employees in the wake of the SEC’s fraud charge.

In general, news that’s “good” for the U.S. economy will be bad for mortgage rates, and vice verse.  And with mortgage rates changing as quickly as they have been, rates could really rise in a hurry.

The best defense against rising mortgage rates is to execute a rate lock. If you’re nervous about rates moving higher, call your loan officer and execute your rate lock today.

Posted on April 26, 2010 | Tags: Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 19, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week for the second week in a row.  And, also for the second week in a row, rates were down on “safe haven” buying — just not for the same safe haven reasons as before.

If you’ll remember, safe haven buying is when investors sense market risk, then move money toward less risky investments.

Well, because the U.S. government backs the bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, mortgage bonds tend to fit the “less risky” description and as Iceland’s volcanoes shut down air traffic in Europe, mortgage bonds benefited.

That was early in the week.

Then, on Friday, when the SEC announced fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, a second wave of bond buying began as Wall Street fled the stock market. Mortgage rates fell a second time and the improvement carried through the market’s weekly close.

Conforming and FHA rates are as low as they’ve been since March.

This week, there’s not much data due until Thursday, but even Thursday’s releases won’t make a huge impact on rates.

1. Initial Jobless Claims : Important vis-a-vis broader employment figures. A strong number could push rates up.
2. Existing Home Sales : Housing remains a key part of the economy. Strong sales are expected because of the tax credit.
3. Producer Price Index : A “Cost of Living” index of business. A weak reading is expected because inflation is low.

Then, Friday, New Home Sales is released.

The bigger risk to home buyers this week than data is the reversal of the safe haven buying patterns that have kept mortgage rates down over the past 10 days.  Keep an eye on the markets and your loan officer on speed dial.  Markets can — and do — change quickly. 

You’ll want to time your lock accordingly.

Posted on April 19, 2010 | Tags: Mortgage Rates